USDJPY 79.50 Tough To Break

USDJPY M30

For USDJPY pair, 79.50 is proving good support. On many occasions 79.50 level was tough to break.

AUDUSD Triangle Trade

AUDUSD H1

I am watching this setup from past few sessions. Details [here]. 

So far the price action is not able to break triangle on either side. Price is bouncing from upper trendline. Looks like the upper horizontal resistance area and trendline are providing good resistance on any spikes. 

Since the width of channel is small, I will not trade pullback from triangle's trendline. I will trade breakouts only. 

USDCHF Channel Break Short Trade

USDCHF H1

I am watching this channel from past few sessions. Now this channel has broken on downside. 

One thing to notice is that 200EMA has provided a good resistance/support to pair in past. And in current chart pair is going south after touching it. 

EURJPY Head-and-Shoulder Came Out Very Well

EURJPY H1

I was trading this setup and it came out very well. Details [here].


I went short at 103.10 on the break of neckline and booked my profit on touch on lower trendline at 102.50. It was a nice setup overall. 

GBPCAD Short Trade Setup

GBPCAD H4

I am watching this setup from past few sessions and have traded it previously for 20pips. Details [here].

Now the price is hitting the resistance area again and short trade setup is materializing. After touching resistance area, price is getting rejected and going south. On H4 and lower timeframe, double top setup is building. 

Bullish On China : BofA

As per the 11-page report published by Merrill Lynch's China economist Ting Lu, China's economy shows across-the-board green shoots.
Major take aways from reports:

• Prices of cement, iron ore, steel and transportation bounced recently.
• Inventory of coal, iron ore and perhaps some raw materials are declining.

GBPUSD Short On Bounce

GBPUSD H4

I am trading this channel from past few sessions and is currently flat. Details [here].

NZDUSD Triangle Trade

NZDUSD H1

I am watching a longer term setup on H4 timeframe. Details [here]. 

Till that setup materializes, I see another setup coming up in NZDUSD pair. A triangle formation on H1 timeframe. 

Price has bounced from 100EMA & 200EMA and is currently midway the triangle. If it breaks on lower side, I will go short targeting the big trendline. 

CADJPY Channel Trade

CADJPY H4

I have traded this pair previously on M30 timeframe. Details [here].


Now another trade setup is coming up in H4 timeframe. Price is following up in a descending channel and has just rebounded from the channel's lower trendline. 

Sandy Floods NYC

Sandy, one of the biggest storms on record, slammed into the US east coast, flooding coastal communities, knocking out power for millions and forcing the closure of financial markets, businesses and travel lines through to least Tuesday.

Sandy hit Atlantic City, New Jersey around 8pm with sustained winds of 80mph. Unlike many storms, Sandy is not expected to weaken significantly over land, experts said.

Option Expiry for 29-Oct

Today's option expiry for 14/15GMT (from Bloomberg)

• EUR/USD: 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.2975, 1.3100 (L)
• GBP/USD: 1.6000, 1.6100, 1.6175
• USD/JPY: 79.50, 80.20, 80.50
• AUD/USD: 1.0200, 1.0250, 1.0300, 1.0325, 1.0350

AUDUSD Triangle Trade

AUDUSD H4

Pair AUDUSD is making out a triangle on H4 timeframe. 

On lower side is the 100EMA, 200EMA and horizontal resistance area. A break below this area bring focus on descending channel's upper trendline. On upper side we got a resistance area 1.04 handle. 

NZDUSD Short Trade

NZDUSD H4

My previous kiwi trade came out very well. I went short at 0.8226 and booked at 0.8180. Details [here]. 

Currently price is midway between trendline and resistance area. I will wait for Europe open to provide a direction to trade. 

GBPCAD Short Trade

GBPCAD Daily

Pair GBPCAD is hitting on a daily resistance area. This resistance area is highs of 15-June and pair is coming south today from this area. 

European Equity Closed Little Bit Up

European Equity Markets closed a little bit up for 26-Oct.

• UK FTSE +0.1%
• Spain IBEX -+0.1%
• French CAC +0.7%
• Italy MIB +0.4%
• German DAX +0.4%

 

Italy Court Convicts Berlusconi Of Tax Evasion

Sentenced to four years in prison on counts of tax fraud. The conviction came after a long series of trials. Court cases in Italy must pass two levels of appeal before the verdicts are final and convicts are sent to prison. 

GOLD Short Trade

I am watching this channel from past few time. Details [here].

Support is turning resistance on H4 chart and currently price has bounced to the support again. Price has started stalling at it and got rejected from it. 

EURJPY Head And Shoulder Complete

EURJPY H1

I am watching this formation from past few sessions. Details [here].

Now this head-and-shoulder formation is complete and price has broker below the neckline. Moreover price has also bounced to the neckline after breaking it and is pushing down.

NZDUSD Gramophone Pattern Short Trade

NZDUSD H1

Pair NZDUSD is making out a gramophone pattern on H1 chart.

CADJPY Triangle Short Trade

CADJPY M30

On M30 timeframe, CADJPY broken the triangle on the lower side. 

Another horizontal resistance area is coming up at 80.35. A break of that brings focus to a major horizontal resistance area coming up at 80.13/15. 

GOLD Support Turning Resistance

GOLD H4

GOLD H4 is following a typical support-turned-resistance pattern while moving down. 

USDCAD Channel Trade

USDCAD H1

Pair USDCAD is moving in a descending channel. 

This channel has restrained the price moves since 22-Oct. Currently looks like price is getting down push after touching the channel's upper trendline. 

GBPUSD Channel Short Trade

I am watching this channel and have traded it well before. Details [here]. So far its coming up good .

EURJPY Head And Shoulder In Making

In EURJPY, I am watching the channel formation and have traded it well. Details [here].

NZDJPY Channel Short Trade

Pair NZDJPY is rising in a ascending channel and currently price is about to touch channel's upper trendline. 

NZDJPY Daily

That area also coincides with the horizontal resistance area. I am expecting this area to hold now.

AUDJPY Channel Short Trade

Pair AUDJPY is rising up in a ascending channel.

AUDJPY H4

AUDNZD Channel Break

AUDNZD H4

Pair AUDNZD on H4 has broken the rising channel to the downside.

NZDUSD Breaking Triangle

Pair NZDUSD on H4 timeframe has broken the descending triangle to the upside. 

NZDUSD H4

Berlusconi Confirms Will Not Run In 2013 Election

"Bye Bye Bunga-Bunga" that's what came to my mind first.

Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi confirmed that he would not lead his party in next year's election.

GBPJPY At Channel Again

I am watching this channel form past few sessions and have traded it and covered my short already. Details [here] & [here]..

Market Movers So Far

Events that moved market so far. 

• Greece got a 2 year extension to meet its bailout targets.
• Greek debt rises to 150.5% of GDP in Q2, from 136.9% in Q1
• French October Flash Composite PMI came at 44.8. September reading was 43.2.
• German October Flash composite PMI camr at 48.1 lower from September reading of 49.2.
• EU October Flash composite PMI falls to 45.8 vs forecast of 46.4.
• German October IFO business confidence index comes down at 100.00 vs forecast of 101.5.

AUDJPY Head-and-Shoulder in Making

Pair AUDJPY is making out a Head-and-Shoulder pattern on H1 chart. 

AUDUSD Short Trade Setup

This in continuation to the horizontal resistance area am watching from past few sessions. Details [here].  After breaking below the resistance area, price has rebounded to touch it again.

EURAUD Triangle Trade

EURAUD pair is making out a triangle on H4 chart. 

On top side we got a horizontal resistance area. This area has provided resistance/support on previous several occasions.

EURJPY Short Coming Very Well

This is in continuation to my previous post where i went short on touch of this channel. Details [here]. 
EURJPY pair was a nice rejection from the channel upper's trendline. I was short this pair form 104.30.

GBPJPY Short Coming Very Well

This is in continuation ot my  previous post where I went short on touch of this channel. Details [here].
GBPJPY short is coming very well as expected. That rejection from channel's upper trendline was heavy. I was short from 128.05 details [here].

EURJPY Daily Channel

After big move yesterday, EURJPY is pushing against daily channel. I am watching this channel from past few session, details [here].

GBPJPY Channel Holding Well

This is continuation to my previous post [here]. The channel is holding very well so far and has pushed price 3 times to south. 

USDJPY Horizontal Resistance

After a great move, USDJPY has encountered horizontal resistance area just below 80 figure. At this point, I am booking my 2 long positions. More details [here]. Thats a good deal of profit. I went long around 78.05 figure and again at 78.80.

European Equity Close: All Down

For 22-Oct-12:

• UK FTSE -0.3%
• Spain IBEX -0.7%
• German DAX -0.8%
• French CAC -0.7%

GBPJPY Short Trade Setup

Pair GBPJPY is making out a channel on hourly chart. Price has started retracing back from the channel's upper trendline. 

EURCAD Channel Short Trade

Pair EURCAD is rising up in a ascending channel in M30 chart. Currently price is retracing after touching the channel's upper trendline. 

EURCAD M30

BoJ Downgraded 8 out of 9 regions, Complete Report

In its quarterly report, Bank-of-Japan cut economic assessment of 8 out of 9 regions. It said that growth rate has paused or moderated in overseas market which attributed to slow down in regions.

USDCAD Above Trendline

USDCAD pair on daily charts have moved above the descending trendline. Thanks to the push higher on Friday. 

AUDUSD Price At Channel

I was watching this setup from past few sessions. Details [here].

GBPUSD Short Trade Setup

This is in continuation to my previous short trade setup posted here. 

EURJPY Channel and Triangle

On EURJPY M30 chart, a channel and triangle is forming up. Price has already broken the triangle above but is midway the channel. 

EURJPY M30

Stocks Drop Most Since June on Earnings

US equity market slid the most since June as bigges like General Electric, McDonald's Corp and Microsoft Corp posted results below estimates.

S&P index fell aproxx 1.7%. This is the worst dip since June21.

EURUSD Long Trade Setup

I am watching this triangle since past few sessions. Details [here].

EURUSD H1

I am maintaining bullish view on EURUSD and opportunity to go long is coming up.

AUDUSD Long Trade Setup

I am watching this channel from past few trading sessions. Details [here].

GBPUSD Short Trade

I am trading & watching this setup from past few sessions. Details [here].

CHFJPY Channel Short Trade

CHFJPY Daily

On bigger timefram, daily chart, pair has posted straight 6days of gains. So a consolidation cant be ruled out.

AUDJPY Short Trade Idea

On bigger timeframe, daily chart, price is restrained by a descending trendline. This trendline is holding up since midof AUg-12.

NZDJPY Channel Short Trade

NZDJPY M30

On M30 chart, price is constrained within a rising channel. There has been a false break but price rebounded from previous horizontal support and 100MA and went inside the channel again.

EURJPY Double Top Short Trade

EURJPY H1 Channel

On H1 chart, price is constrained within a rising channel. There has been a break but price rebounded and closed above it. I am looking for break and close below this channel to go short. The channel looks steep and a break lower looks evident.

U.S. to Get Downgraded : PIMCO

Another downgrade looming on US as per the latest report from Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s largest bond fund.

USDJPY Long Working Out Good

My USDJPY long positions are making pips very well. See details [here].

EURUSD Triangle Break

I am watching this triangle since past few sessions and was expecting it to break to upside, and guess what, it did. Details [here] and [here].

AUDUSD Above Channel

AUDUSD has crossed above descending channel's upper trendline. Move looks bullish. Now any pullback towards channel should be supported very well. 

S&P Cuts Cyprus To B From BB

S&P downgraded Cyprus three notches further into junk territory. In June, Fitch cut its rating on Cyprus to double-B-plus, one level into junk territory. Moody's downgraded Cyprus's ratings to B3, placing it six levels into junk territory. The downgrade ended a review launched in June. The outlook is negative.

Greece : Another General Strike Coming

Wow, no work is here again. 

Greece’s two largest labor unions, GSEE and ADEDY, representing public and private workers, will lead another 24-hour general strike on Oct. 18, shutting down much of the country for the third time in a month.

Eurozone Crisis Timeline In Interactive Mode

It's really good interface and detailed. Very interactive mode to play around for some time... :)

From Guardian Interactive-Timeline.

Option Expiry for 17-Oct

Today's option expiry for 14/15GMT (from Bloomberg)

• EUR/USD: 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3115, 1.3125(Large),
• AUD/USD: 1.0205, 1.0215 (Large), 1.0250, 1.0300
• USD/JPY:  78.50, 78.90, 79.00

GBPUSD Short Trade Setup

Currently price is touch the descending channel's upper trendline. This channel is constrained price since mid of September. 

GBPJPY Short Trade

Pair GBPJPY is going south from descending channel's upper trendline. This channel has constrained price since mid of September.

AUDUSD Stalling at 200MA

After a break and close above previous horizontal resistance area, now the price is stalling at 200MA. This area coincides with another resistance area. 

EURGBP Long Trade Setup

EURGBP pair went above 200MA and descending trendline and closed well above it. Thanks to EURUSD up move. 

USDJPY Stalling At 200MA

The pair USDJPY has broken the triangle but is stalling at 200MA as have been previous moves.See details [here].

USDCAD Got Rejected from Previous Highs

The Canadian dollar weakened the most in almost three months against U.S. Dollar after Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney suggested he may reduce his economic outlook and delay raising policy interest rates. 

EURGBP Short Trade Triangle Setup

In EURGBP pair, I was waiting for this setup from past few trading sessions. See details [here] & [here].

Citigroup Replaces CEO Pandit With Michael Corbat

Citigroup's CEO Vikram Pandit was replaced by Michael Corbat. 

EURUSD Swing Sell

On EURUSD H1 chart, price is getting close to horizontal resistance area. This area is support turned resistance. Also on the upper side comes the upper trendline which has restrained price since mid of September. 

GBPUSD Short Trade

This is in continuation to my previous short trade setup plan at [here]. 

USDJPY Long Trade

I am watching this triangle from past few trading sessions. Details [here]. I was expecting this triangle to break to up side and finally its about to break. 

Panama, Latest Country To Use EURO

President Ricardo Martinelli told German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday during a visit to Europe, that Panama would like to introduce Euro alongside US Dollar as legal tender. 

AUDJPY Channel And Resistance

In pair AUDJPY, there's a channel forming out of a channel. 

EURGBP Triangle and MA Resistance

This is in continuation to my previous post [here] indicating triangle formation in EURGBP.

Option Expiry

Options expiry for 15-Oct for 14/15GMT (from Bloomberg)

• EUR/USD: 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.3000, 1.3050,
• GBP/USD: 1.6150
• AUD/USD: 1.0100, 1.0200, 1.0250

EURUSD Triangle Long Trade

EURUSD price action is forming a triangle on H4 chart.

GBPUSD Short Trade

This is continuation to my previous post [here].

GOLD at Support & MA

This in continuation to my previous post [here]. 

Market Mover for 15-Oct-12

News that moved market so far:

• US Empire Fed comes at -6.16 vs expected reading of -4.00
• US retail sales ex-autos and gas comes at +0.9% vs expecetd reading of +0.4% 
• China CPI (Consumer Price Index ) for September month increase by 1.9% year/year basis, forecast 1.9% and prior 2.0%. Increased 0.3% on mon/mon basis (forecast +0.4%).

EURO Shorts Increased In Latest CFTC(Commitments of Traders) Report

These numbers are as of October 9, 2012, Tuesday.

• EUR net short 73K vs 50K prior
• GBP net long 23K vs 30K prior
• JPY net long 13K vs 29K prior
• AUD net long 40K vs 63K prior

Moody to Downgrade Spain Soon

Normally rating agencies go hand in hand. After S&P downgrade, other rating agencies were likely to follow.

GOLD Breaking Support

This in continuation to my previous post [here] looking for a correction in GOLD.

Happy Weekend Fellas

EU (European Union) wins 2012 Nobel Peace Prize

The notion behind it is that EU has transformed most of Europe from a continent of wars to a continent of peace and for its efforts for rebuilding Europe after two World-Wars.

Option Expiry for 12-Oct-2012

Today's option expiry for 14/15GMT (from Bloomberg)

• EUR/USD: 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3100
• GBP/USD: 1.5950, 1.6200
• USD/JPY:  77.00, 78.00, 78.35, 78, 78.70
• AUD/USD: 1.0200, 1.0250, 1.0300

EURGBP Triangle

Pair EURGBP is carving out a triangle formation on daily charts. 

Along with upper trendline, it got 200MA. This 200MA has resisted price before. Although there was a false breakout and close above 200MA but then the price was resisted by descending trendline. I am expecting this area to provide good resistance on any up moves. 

EURUSD H1 Triangle

EURUSD price action is forming a triangle on H1 chart. 

US Dollar was weak across the board after Australian job data beat expectation. The numbers were really good. It sparked a risk-on rally. 

Asia Stocks Drop on Spain Rating

Regional Asian equity markets are down for today. Some are lowest for the month.

Spain's credit rating downgrade by S&P (details here)is said to be the driving factor. After recent IMF warnings, (details here & here)investors were just looking for igniter and looks like S&P provided that.

Option Expiry For 11-Oct-12

Today's option expiry for 14/15GMT (from Bloomberg) :

• EUR/USD: 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2930, 1.2950, 1.2975
• GBP/USD: 1.5945, 1.5950, 1.6080
• USD/JPY:  77.75, 78.00, 78.50, 78.60,
• AUD/USD: 1.0150, 1.0175, 1.0300

GBPJPY Short Trade Idea

Pair GBPJPY is about to break the ascending channel which has constrained its price since last week of July-12. 

USDJPY Long Trade Setup

Currently price is testing a horizontal support area. This area has provided support on previous several drops. On a break of this support, the rising trendline is expected to support. 

EURUSD Long Trade Setup

On daily chart, EURUSD is about to test the upper trendline of descending channel. This area also coincides with 200MA and rising trendline. 

AUDUSD Short Trade Setup

This is in continuation to my previous view on AUDUSD pair. See previous post [here].

S&P downgrades Spain to BBB-

More or less, it was just a matter of time. Usually other rating agencies follows soon.

• Government not able to tackle rising employment and spending. 
• Mounting risks to Spain’s public finances
• Deepening economic recession is limiting the Spanish government’s policy options
• Will cut further if no support for the current reform agenda.

Alcoa Cuts Global Aluminum Forecast on China Slowdown

Alcoa cut its forecast for global consumption of Aluminum to 6% from 7%.

“We do see a slight slowdown in some regions in end- markets, and the main driver for this is China,” Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Klaus Kleinfeld said on a conference.

Damage to UK Economy Worse Than Initially Thought : UK PM Cameron

That should put more pressure on GBP.
 
Speaking at an annual event, UK PM Cameron expressed concerns about economic growth. Main take aways:

• Has made progress on recovery, but it may take longer than expected.
• Will progress more on deficit reduction plan.
• Will not let Britain ‘join the slide’

EURAUD Trade of the Century : Goldman Sachs

Guys at Goldman Sachs recommends going long Euro vs Aussie dollar. The analysis is based few things:
-> Much of the bad news out of Europe has been priced in.
-> Pressure has been building up on Aussie since the recent RBA dovish comments and slowing Chinese growth.

Market Movers

Main events happened so far:

• European equity market opened lower. FTSE and DAX  down around -0.38%, CAC-40 down around -0.5%. 
• French August's Industrial output rises 1.8% month/month basis. Forecast was -0.2. July reading revised higher 0.6%.
• French August's Manufacture output up by 1.8% month/month basis. July reading got revision of 1.0%.
• Italy August industry output came at +1.7% month/month basis and -5.2% year/year basis. Forecast was -0.4% mon/mon and -10% year/year.
• EURAUD sales pushing AUDUSD higher.
• EURCHF finding support at 1.21

Option Expiry for 10-Oct-12

Today's option expiry for 14/15GMT (from Bloomberg)

• EUR/USD: 1.2880, 1.2900, 1.3000
• GBP/USD: 1.6000, 1.6050
• USD/JPY:  78.00, 78.50, 78.60
• AUD/USD: 1.01, 1.0150, 1.0250

U.S., Japan on Risks of Safe-Haven Status : IMF

Isn't Japan already considered a safe heaven by investors.?? The new thing is that now US is also coming into that status. No doubt US economy always looks promising compared to Euro zone.

GOLD Looking for a Correction

After a impressive rally from 1575/85, GOLD is looking for a possible correction. It has made a triple top around 1800 area handle. Looks like traders are eying that area for profit taking and initiating short positions.

GBPUSD Double Top

GBPUSD got rejected from 1.63 figure again. Yesterday's BoE's dovish comments accelerated move downwards. 

Negative Rates at State Street and Bank of New York Mellon Corp

Two of the world's biggest custody bank, State Street Corp. and Bank of New York Mellon, have started charging negative rate for holding Danish kroner and Swiss francs.

Starting Nov 1, State Street will apply a negative annual interest rate of 0.75 percent to krone deposits and a separate 0.25% charge on Swiss francs deposits. But there's a breather here that the charges will apply only to those accounts in the two currencies which exceed a set minimum.

Denmark and Switzerland have cut interest rates close to or below zero to keep the krone and franc from rising.
Since State Street deals mainly with institution, so it might not be having wide individual customer base.

Royal Bank of Canada, is already imposing negative rates on some customers who hold kroner and francs.

Complete story from Bloomberg.

European Equity Closed A Bit Down

European's equity markets closed a bit in red.

• UK FTSE -0.7%
• German DAX -0.9%
• Italy MIB -0.4%
• French CAC -0.8%
• Spain IBEX -2.0%

GBPJPY Channel Break

This is in continuation of my previous GBPJPY channel post [here].

AUDUSD Channel Resistance

This is in continuation to my previous view on AUDUSD pair. See previous post [here].

Spain To Miss Deficit Targets In 2012, 2013: IMF

Not sure how strong it makes the case for Spain to ask for aid, but its definitely doesn't look good for EURO without further aid to Spain.

Greece Protestor Compares Merkel to Hitler

On her visit to Athens, Merkel got a new interesting (or may be ugly.??) analogy. Greece protestors are comparing Merkel to Hitler.

South Australia Outlook Negative : Fitch

Fitch has revised South Australia to negative. It says it needs strong fiscal policies to increase revenue and boost growth.

I really wonder - why Fitch divides a country into separate region and rates them separately....

Option Expiry 9-Oct-12

Today;s options expiry for 14/15GMT (from Bloomberg)

EUR/USD: 1.2920, 1.2960, 1.2975, 1.3000, 1.3050,
GBP/USD: 1.6140
AUD/USD: 1.0235USD/JPY:  77.00, 78.00, 79.50

Alarmingly High' Risk of Fresh Global Slump: IMF

The International Monetary Fund has slashed its growth forecast for large parts of the world economy and warned of a full-blown global slump if policymakers in Europe or the US mishandle serious threats.

Major take-away:

• The intensity of the euro area crisis has not abated as assumed in previous projections.
•  Risks for recession in the advanced economies are alarmingly high,
•  Italy will shrink by 2.3pc this year and 0.7pc next, pushing the debt ratio to an all-time high of 128pc
•  The IMF expects the US to muddle through with growth of 1.3pc this year and 1.5pc in 2013, but this is uncomfortably close to stall speed.  
• China is expected to avoid a hard-landing and still has some scope to cushion any further shock with fiscal stimulus,

 
Source Telegraph.

GBPJPY Channel

Since last week of July-12, pair has been constrained in a ascending channel with a consolidation at 100MA & 200MA and a false break of channel's upper trendline. 

USDJPY Triangle

USDJPY is finding difficult to hold on to gains above 100MA & 200MA. See previous post [here]. There's another way to see the price action i.e. triangle formation. 

Wall Street Falls At Open

East Asia and Pacific region's growth forecast cut by World Bank main driving factor. Details [here]. The World Bank also added that there was a risk that the slowdown in China, world's second largest economy, could worsen and last longer than many analysts have forecast.

Option Expiry for 8-Oct-12

Today's Option Expiry for 14/15GMT (from Blomberg).

EUR/USD: 1.2970, 1.3000, 1.3025, 1.3050
GBP/USD: 1.6030, 1.6100 USD/JPY:  78.50
AUD/USD: 1.0100, 1.0250, 1.0275

Market Movers 8-Oct-12

 

• China HSBC September Services PMI comes at 54.3 vs previous reading of 52. 
• Hong Kong September HSBC PMI falls to 49.6 from 50.5 in August. 
• World Bank cut GDP forecast for:
  -> Developing East Asia Pacific for 2012 to 7.2% (from 7.6%), for 2013 to 7.6% (8.0% ).
  -> Cuts China forecast for 2012 to 7.7 % (8.2% ), fo2 2013 to 8.1 % (8.6%).
• New Zealand September House Price Index rises to 5.0% on y/y basis and 0.6% on mon/mon basis.
• Australia September Overall Job Ads comes down 2.8% on mon/mon basis.

AUDNZD Trade Idea

AUDNZD has been in a downtrend since past 2 months. The down move is mainly driven by the recent series of bearish AUD news and RBA cut. Detail [here]. Usually Australia's and New-Zealand's economy go hand in hand and factors effecting Australia's economy will most probably affect New-Zealand economy as well. Since Australia economy is bigger than New-Zealand's, so factors out of former will affect the pair more. 

EURO Will Be There In 100 Years - ECB Economist

It is fairly valued compared to major currencies e.g. US Dollar and it is expected to attract investor not only from Europe but from all over the world.

"In the long term, it is my desire that all the EU countries will eventually join the euro."

"I am convinced that the euro will be there in 10 years, and even in 100 years."

Gold Traders Are More Bullish

Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show that hedge funds’ bets on a rally are the biggest in seven months. The ECB has held interest rate at a record low. The Bank of Japan has said it will add to a fund that buys assets.

AUD Selling Resumes

Looks like traders are selling spikes in AUDUSD. 

RBA was quite dovish during the last rate cut meet. Details [here] and [here]. But there are some good news as well. FDI inflow is confirmed to continue till next year. Mining & FDI has been major factor in AUD growth. Details [here] & [here].

Sri Lanka Resumes Printing Money To Sterilize Forex Sales

In a sterilized foreign exchange sale, dollars are sold by the monetary authority and money is printed adding to new demand. While overnight rupee injections also generates demand in economy, it can be less damaging than longer term cash injections.  
Sri Lanka's central bank has printed 8billion rupees for one month at 9.81%.

NZDUSD Triangle

There's a nice triangle formation coming up in NZDUSD daily charts. Upper trendline has constrained price since Nov-2011 and down trendline has supported price since June-2012.  Down trendline has got 100MA & 200MA along with it. 

European Equity Close

European equity markets closed with nice gains.

• UK FTSE +0.7%
• German DAX +1.2%
• French CAC +1.6%
• Spain IBEX +1.6%
• Italy MIB +2.4%

 

Gold Holding Gains

Gold working out nicely. It went up today but slipped post NFP. Currently it capped by Nov-2011 highs. If its able to clear it, then its a free space and should be targeting 2000.

Technically, it looks bullish. MA looks like a strong support and every dip is BUY opportunity. Details [here].

EURUSD Above Resistance

This is in continuation to my EURUSD bullish view. Previous post on bigger picture and long term [here].

Following risk rally, on hourly chart pair is above 61.8 resistance. This resistance area has pushed down the price twice before. On any pullback, look for support at this fibo.

EURUSD Bullish

NFP Details

Good number overall. And previous 2 month revision are also good. It does indicate a improving job market, isn't it.??

Take aways: 

• Unemployment rate lowest since Jan-2009 at 7.8% vs 8.2% expected
• The August reading revised to 142K from 96K
• July revised higher by 181K
• Private payrolls numbers comes at +104K vs +130K expected
• Manufacturing payrolls decrease by -16K vs 0K expected

QE3 could push gold up to $2,400/oz

Remember what QE1 done to Gold.?? Gold rallied from 900. Same for QE2. And now when QE3 is on horizion, its just a matter of time that GOLD breaches historical 2000 mark and eyes the free space. 2400 looks reasonable.

In my previous chart I pointed out that MA is providing good support and price can bounce from there. 50MA is rising and is above the 200MA. Technically, its bullish scenario.

Option Expiry for 5-Oct-2012

Today's option expiry ( from Bloomberg )
Most of the levels are same as before.

EUR/USD: 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100
USD/JPY:  78.00, 78.50,
GBP/USD: 1.6100
AUD/USD: 1.0150, 1.0200, 1.0250

U.S. jobless claims point to steady labor market

Jobless claims for last week rose only slightly after the big drop a week before. Some analyst predict it as a healthy sign of improving job market.

"Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed 4,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 367,000, the Labor Department. But that followed a drop of 22,000 and a four-week average, which offers a view of trends, held steady at 375,000."

BOJ Interest Rate Decision Unchanged

-> Overnight rate at zero to 0.1%.
-> Asset-purchase fund at 55T yen.
-> Expects the economy to level off for the time being.
-> Will conduct powerful easing seamlessly.
-> Will monitor effect of strong exchange rate on the economy and prices.
-> Economic activity is more or less leveling off. 

August Payroll Revision

Some analyst are out with report that over the past several years, August payroll have been revised higher while releasing September payroll number. If such a revision happens, and payroll number comes out even average, it would give USD a boost across the board.

WTI above 90

WTI higher on on some news of tension in Middle-East. It has reversed much of the losses of earlier session.

Equities are also up mostly. 

Finally some good news for AUD

Finally some breathing to falling AUD. Secretary to the Treasury Martin Parkinson comments that slowdown in Mining sector are greatly exaggerated:

• “I would concur with Reserve Bank Governor, Glenn Stevens, that rumors of the death of the mining sector have been greatly exaggerated:” Parkinson