NZDJPY Channel Short Trade

NZDJPY M30

On M30 chart, price is constrained within a rising channel. There has been a false break but price rebounded from previous horizontal support and 100MA and went inside the channel again.



To go short, I am looking for break and close below this channel + 100MA + horizontal support. 

On a bigger timeframe, price is getting rejected form previous highs.

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NZDUSD M30

Update 19-Oct-12 14:15GMT: The horizontal support is holding so far. A break should accelerate the move towards the lower support.